Modelling COVID-19 in India
What is COVID-19?
Introduction
In 2020, the world faced an unprecedented time as it battled the emergence of a disease popularly referred to as COVID-19. With about 640 million cases worldwide, the global community lost 6 million people to this disease as it rushed to develop vaccines and hospitalise the rapid surge of cases in many towns, cities, states and nations worldwide.
What exactly is this disease?
The coronavirus disease, popularly known as COVID-19, is a respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with SARS representing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). It is transmissible through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks. Touching surfaces contaminated with the virus from these droplets, which can survive for several hours on these surfaces, can also cause transmission. Once infected, symptoms such as fever, chills and coughs develop between 2-14 days of initial exposure, with severe symptoms arising in elderly patients or patients with underlying conditions such as diabetes or chronic respiratory diseases. COVID-19 can be controlled through vaccinations, social distancing, or wearing approved facial masks.
A Focus on India
India, with a population of over 1 billion people, recorded its first case on the 20th of January 2020, after which the number of cases proliferated, hitting about 30,000 new cases per day between April and May 2021, during the second wave of COVID-19 cases. Although the risk of infection in India is particularly high due to its high population density and insufficient medical facilities, the warm climate and the country’s significant progress in vaccinations have helped curb the spread of the disease.
This paper sought to model the outbreak of COVID-19 in India using the SIR model and under conditions such as the lockdown, social distancing and prevalent wearing of face masks from the 7th of May 2020. The objective of the paper was to provide a means of forecasting the peak and end of COVID-19 and subsequently use the data for better management for doctors and various organisations.
India COVID-19 Statistics Worldwide
Population
1,406,631,776
Number of Cases:
44,667,967
Fully Vaccinated people:
950,540,476
Deaths
530,553